

Team Green plans to get closer to the Chinese markets by building a dedicated R&D center in China as well, which means that NVIDIA is serious about this move.
Yup, of course they are. As I said the other day, US firms for which their userbase is not the product face long term downside as the US state cuts them off of foreign markets or the foreign markets cuts them off as retaliation to the US state trade policies. If they keep their product development in the US they’re facing reduced markets and increased dependence on the US state. And of course increased competition by foreign (e.g. China’s Huawei) firms catching up to fill the demand gap. If they manage to fill the gap with price competitive product, there’s no coming back for NVIDIA.
I think if NVIDIA moves outside of the US, Trump would have no choice but to keep exempting their products from the import tariffs since there’s no US-made alternative at the moment and there won’t be one for a while. But NVIDIA may not have a choice but to move out, especially if they want to keep their market position against Chinese firms over the long run. If they stay in the US they face a likely future of being locked into the US market with the rest of the world being dominated by whatever competitive accelerators come out of China. If they move out, and especially if they move to China, they could become the CCP-blessed domestic AI hardware maker, before another Chinese firm is able to get there. They’ll have the world market to export to as well as the US, for as long as the US doesn’t have a competitive product. After that it’ll be just the rest of the world since China’s NVIDIA product would always have price advantage compared to US offerings. Of course under a China NVIDIA scenario they likely won’t be able to keep their IP fully closed or their profit margins within China, and perhaps abroad.